96 hours to go. . .

There seem to be two major models for how the race will play out across the final four days. The first of those is the Standard Model: that the race continues to tighten, as it seems to have been doing (though not nearly as quickly as McCain would want). The other, of course, is the 1980 scenario: that the independents and undecideds break en masse toward one of the candidates, the way they did for Reagan over Carter. Should this occur, it will almost certainly be in Obama’s direction, since—as in 1980—the fundamentals (crap economy/inane foreign policy) are stacked against the incumbent party.

Were this an ordinary election, either scenario would work for Obama.  But—as I’ve said more than once—we’re now into eight years of a systematic attempt to undermine the vote, and we can’t take anything for granted anymore.  Already the reports of widespread fraud are pouring in—even as the media wring their hands over potential flaws in the polling, while simultaneously waxing poetic about the (almost certainly mythical) Bradley Effect.  They will need both storylines to explain a McCain upset if the current numbers hold up across the campaign’s last days; far better to delve into endless faux analyses on closet racists and dodgy polls than to touch the Third Rail of Vote Fraud.  (This was what Hitler meant when he said the bigger the lie, the more people tend to believe it.)  Flashback to 1992:  when George Stephanopoulos informed Governor Clinton that he had a solid two point lead going into Election Day, both men knew it was in the bag.  Those were simpler times; Obama will need as large a cushion as possible—meaning that everything comes down to the Senator’s awe-inspiring groundgame, the full weight of which is now being felt across the battleground states.

2 Responses to “96 hours to go. . .”

  1. narciso Says:

    Seriously, Dave, breath don’t hyperventilate; you need to get that updated edition of Mirrored Heavens up. A good deal of the systems are moving to paper ballots, we’ll see what complaints arise from that. Neither Carnahan, nor Wellstone, or Tower or Heinz were anything but pilot error. So was the ‘big bopper’, and Richie Valens. The Shura council is a little unclear on who they’re endorsing; don’t worry about it, they hate us all.

  2. David Williams Says:

    Narciso— first of all, it’s worth noting that from an epistemological perspective, you’ve got a far greater burden of proof than me. You say Wellstone’s crash was DEFINITELY an accident; I say, it *might* not have been. That puts you in the camp of Having More To Prove. I always approach this stuff from an agnostic perspective; part of what gives Conspiracy Theory a bad name is that too many of its adherents (due, no doubt, to their wide-eyed paranoia) go in there and say this definitely happened, and so did that, and it was aliens behind the Grassy Knoll, etc., etc. Abandoning certitude is the first step toward a serious study of history.

    I also think that Wellstone’s crash is different/far more shady than any of the other ones you cite; I have yet to see evidence that makes me think any of those might not be accidents. A good summary of the Wellstone evidence is here: http://www.strike-the-root.com/columns/Bottoms/bottoms25.html