Look Ma, No Hands
And suddenly, UAVs are everywhere. Let’s start with about ten blocks from where I’m writing this, over at the Smithsonian’s Air and Space Museum, where an exhibit has opened “celebrating unmanned flight technology.” The exhibit features UAVs from all four U.S. service branches—as well as sponsorship courtesy of General Atomics, proud parent of the Predator, the most famous of the UAVs out there (at least among the ones we know about). And indeed, the original Predator is on display: though you won’t see any of its Reaper successors, given that they’re running sorties over Baghdad, where they’ve got better things to do than impressing tourists and Appropriations Committee congressmen.
Yet what runs the risk of being overshadowed amidst this first-of-its-kind display is the extent to which other nations are getting in on the act. At present, UAVs represent yet one more attribute of the superiority of U.S. military hardware. That won’t change any time soon—the really sophisticated UAVs will sport the Stars N’ Stripes for the time being. But the ability to send an unmanned machine into the air to do useful things is a threshold that’s been crossed in many countries, and that’s likely to accelerate, given a wide range of recon and (at a more advanced level) combat uses. Though combat cuts both ways, of course . . . .case in point: last week’s downing of a Georgian UAV drone by a Russian MIG.
If you haven’t seen it already, the vid’s worth watching, all the way to the static as the missile takes out the drone. (The dry commentary of the Georgian defense minister is also pretty good.)But pyrotechnics aside, this is all about different thresholds of functionality at the end of the day. And as we see signs of a new, “poor man’s” generation of UAV emerge, we can expect the basic functionality to commoditize to the point where basically anyone can build one. And ultimately, anyone will. Expect the next round of insurgent warfare to feature UAVs on both sides.
May 23rd, 2008 at 5:19 pm
The really sophisticated UAVs may well sport the stars and stripes, but that doesn’t mean “Made in USA”. Might I suggest a little more research in depth into the field of UAVs? Particularly Israeli ones.
May 24th, 2008 at 1:51 am
It’s a fair point. Though the Israeli UAVs could well be considered as “financed by U.S.A.” And drawing the exact line between Israeli R&D and U.S. R&D would require many a top secret clearance to map out with precision. But yes, you raise an interesting additional aspect to the story, one that hasn’t received anywhere near the press it deserves.
For the purposes of the power dynamics I’m analyzing in the (probably way too short) original post, though, the point is simply that no nation not allied to the U.S. is likely to field UAVs of comparable sophistication anytime soon. But the Israel role in all of this is significant enough that my not mentioning it is an omission that I appreciate your having called me on.