Comments on: Putting Russia in perspective http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/08/19/putting-russia-in-perspective/ Autumn Rain 2110 Tue, 06 Jan 2009 08:55:38 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.2 By: David J. Williams » Blog Archive » Obama, McCain, and foreign policy http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/08/19/putting-russia-in-perspective/#comment-614 David J. Williams » Blog Archive » Obama, McCain, and foreign policy Thu, 09 Oct 2008 15:06:49 +0000 http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/08/19/putting-russia-in-perspective/#comment-614 [...] it impossible for Obama to say anything else, but as I’ve noted before, it would be sheer insanity to go to the mat with Russia over anything in the Caucasus.  And yet amidst all the rhetoric, one [...] [...] it impossible for Obama to say anything else, but as I’ve noted before, it would be sheer insanity to go to the mat with Russia over anything in the Caucasus.  And yet amidst all the rhetoric, one [...]

]]> By: David Williams http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/08/19/putting-russia-in-perspective/#comment-441 David Williams Sun, 24 Aug 2008 16:19:04 +0000 http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/08/19/putting-russia-in-perspective/#comment-441 @Narciso-- on the MIRRORED HEAVENS <a href="http://autumnrain2110.com/index.php?action=geopolitical" rel="nofollow">timeline</a>: there's a deliberate parallel I'm drawing in there between Olenkov and Harrison that you're right to pick up on--both are clearly very unusual individuals, and both end up taking the supreme power at a very young age. (hey, Napoleon became first consul of France when he was 30--the makers and shakers in history have a way of not waiting till their hairs get grey.) The only thing I'm not tracking right now in your analysis is your assumption that Harrison wasn't in a military campaign until he was 31--i.e, the Second Eco War of 2078. The timeline only shows the really major stuff-there's plenty of covert ops and counterinsurgencies going on throughout, so it's safe bet that Harrison was in a position to see conflict (probably in South America) throughout his 20s. And your assumption that he was involved in Special Forces is on-target. I should also probably clarify "the Throne"--it's strictly a colloquial reference: intel slang for the U.S. president. Officially, the U.S. remains a democracy under the Reformed Constitution; obviously it's really an authoritarian system, but there's certainly no attempt to declare the U.S. a monarchy or anything like that. As to what that makes Harrison in the Roman Analogy Sweepstakes--hard to say, because his career's still in progress....stay tuned.... @Narciso– on the MIRRORED HEAVENS timeline: there’s a deliberate parallel I’m drawing in there between Olenkov and Harrison that you’re right to pick up on–both are clearly very unusual individuals, and both end up taking the supreme power at a very young age. (hey, Napoleon became first consul of France when he was 30–the makers and shakers in history have a way of not waiting till their hairs get grey.) The only thing I’m not tracking right now in your analysis is your assumption that Harrison wasn’t in a military campaign until he was 31–i.e, the Second Eco War of 2078. The timeline only shows the really major stuff-there’s plenty of covert ops and counterinsurgencies going on throughout, so it’s safe bet that Harrison was in a position to see conflict (probably in South America) throughout his 20s. And your assumption that he was involved in Special Forces is on-target.

I should also probably clarify “the Throne”–it’s strictly a colloquial reference: intel slang for the U.S. president. Officially, the U.S. remains a democracy under the Reformed Constitution; obviously it’s really an authoritarian system, but there’s certainly no attempt to declare the U.S. a monarchy or anything like that.

As to what that makes Harrison in the Roman Analogy Sweepstakes–hard to say, because his career’s still in progress….stay tuned….

]]> By: David Williams http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/08/19/putting-russia-in-perspective/#comment-440 David Williams Sun, 24 Aug 2008 16:05:39 +0000 http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/08/19/putting-russia-in-perspective/#comment-440 @Daniel W.--the Russians fear encirclement more than anything, and that's essentially what's been happening to them across the last several years. Without some kind of clarification of our intentions, they're likely to react in a negative way, and given that reassuring Russia has been a very low priority for us since 1989, the situation's rife for further misunderstanding. @ Narciso-- I'll respond in a separate note to the (very cool) analysis on the book. On the Ukraine-- both America and Russia have supplied funds and sought to turn the domestic political scene to their advantage (and no, I'm not trying to establish moral equivalency-as you note, we didn't try to poison anyone). In many ways I think our involvement there is entirely defensible--but I'm trying to underscore how this looks to Russia as part of a broader pattern. And on Poland-I regard Russian threats here as saber-rattling, but it shows how scared they are by BMD. @Daniel W.–the Russians fear encirclement more than anything, and that’s essentially what’s been happening to them across the last several years. Without some kind of clarification of our intentions, they’re likely to react in a negative way, and given that reassuring Russia has been a very low priority for us since 1989, the situation’s rife for further misunderstanding.

@ Narciso– I’ll respond in a separate note to the (very cool) analysis on the book. On the Ukraine– both America and Russia have supplied funds and sought to turn the domestic political scene to their advantage (and no, I’m not trying to establish moral equivalency-as you note, we didn’t try to poison anyone). In many ways I think our involvement there is entirely defensible–but I’m trying to underscore how this looks to Russia as part of a broader pattern. And on Poland-I regard Russian threats here as saber-rattling, but it shows how scared they are by BMD.

]]> By: narciso http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/08/19/putting-russia-in-perspective/#comment-439 narciso Sun, 24 Aug 2008 05:58:13 +0000 http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/08/19/putting-russia-in-perspective/#comment-439 In the chronology of "Mirrored Heavens, you have Marshal Olenkov rising to power at age 44, is that likely. Consider that the recent aspirant to strongman status, General Nagovitsyn, who interestingly never served in Afghanistan or Chechnya is 56; a contemporary of Putin. That it not unheard of, in the long stretch of Russian history, some of the Ivans and even some of the Peters, but out of the ordinary. Admiral Andrew Harrison, 41; one assumes from a Special Forces background, that seems a little unlikely specially considering that he's not in a military campaign till age 31, probably at Lt. Comdr level.(that is unless he was enlisted in the US-Brazil War). So if the Thrones, is the American Empire, realized; do you mean him to be Caesar, Marius, or Sulla. You may have to retcon this; for your paperback edition Another question, if oil is out of the question, and fusion seems rather risky, what would you power this vessels and weapon systems with. "Interfered with internal Ukrainian politics," Is that what they call showing concern when the President of an independent country is poisoned. Frankly we have been too soft on Russia; we did the perfunctory criticism over Chechnya back in the 90s; a quagmire that drew in jihadist elements including several of the September 11th hijackers, providing men and material for Iran's ballistic missile program, executing journalists and opposition leaders like Stairova & Polititskaya ,among just a few details. Now they threaten to attack or even nuke Poland, if they set up a system to defend themselves from those same Iranian or Russian rockets. In the chronology of “Mirrored Heavens, you have Marshal Olenkov rising to power at age 44, is that likely. Consider that the recent aspirant to strongman status, General Nagovitsyn, who interestingly never served in Afghanistan or Chechnya is 56; a contemporary of Putin. That it not unheard of, in the long stretch of Russian history, some of the Ivans and even some of the Peters, but out of the ordinary. Admiral Andrew Harrison, 41; one assumes from a Special Forces background, that seems a little unlikely specially considering that he’s not in a military campaign till age 31, probably at Lt. Comdr level.(that is unless he was enlisted in the US-Brazil War). So if the Thrones, is the American Empire, realized; do you mean him to be Caesar, Marius, or Sulla. You may have to retcon this; for your paperback edition Another question, if oil is out of the question, and fusion seems rather risky, what would you power this vessels and weapon systems with.

“Interfered with internal Ukrainian politics,” Is that what they call showing concern when the President of an independent country is poisoned. Frankly we have been too soft on Russia; we did the perfunctory criticism over Chechnya back in the 90s; a quagmire that drew in jihadist elements including several of the September 11th
hijackers, providing men and material for Iran’s ballistic missile program, executing
journalists and opposition leaders like Stairova & Polititskaya ,among just a few details. Now they threaten to attack or even nuke Poland, if they set up a system to defend themselves from those same Iranian or Russian rockets.

]]> By: Daniel Wargo http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/08/19/putting-russia-in-perspective/#comment-438 Daniel Wargo Sat, 23 Aug 2008 07:08:18 +0000 http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/08/19/putting-russia-in-perspective/#comment-438 Even as we must practice 'realpolitik', we Americans are tasked with, no matter how our mistakes add up in Vietnam and Iraq, the fate of opposing Tyranny and Oppression...It pains me to see former colony states of Russia being invaded, and denied territorial integrity because of Russia's refusal to give up its empire...We should trade the missle shield for all of the former satellites of Russia who want to be integrated into the West so that NATO can advance defensive guarantees to any of these Peoples who ask for them. Russia is imploding with a declining population count, and a declining average lifespan...Sometimes our ideals are our very best strategy... Even as we must practice ‘realpolitik’, we Americans are tasked with, no matter how our mistakes add up in Vietnam and Iraq, the fate of opposing Tyranny and Oppression…It pains me to see former colony states of Russia being invaded, and denied territorial integrity because of Russia’s refusal to give up its empire…We should trade the missle shield for all of the former satellites of Russia who want to be integrated into the West so that NATO can advance defensive guarantees to any of these Peoples who ask for them. Russia is imploding with a declining population count, and a declining average lifespan…Sometimes our ideals are our very best strategy…

]]> By: David Williams http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/08/19/putting-russia-in-perspective/#comment-434 David Williams Tue, 19 Aug 2008 19:37:53 +0000 http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/08/19/putting-russia-in-perspective/#comment-434 @ Jenny-- I think the primary reason Putin's pissed off is the same reason we'd be pissed off if Russia were supplying Mexico with weaponry and backing their government. I.e., he wants the U.S. out of his backyard . . . And you're definitely right that the current Russian prez is a figurehead. Putin's the one in control. @ Meesh: : ) @ Jenny– I think the primary reason Putin’s pissed off is the same reason we’d be pissed off if Russia were supplying Mexico with weaponry and backing their government. I.e., he wants the U.S. out of his backyard . . .

And you’re definitely right that the current Russian prez is a figurehead. Putin’s the one in control.

@ Meesh: : )

]]> By: meesh http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/08/19/putting-russia-in-perspective/#comment-433 meesh Tue, 19 Aug 2008 16:45:43 +0000 http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/08/19/putting-russia-in-perspective/#comment-433 i just like watching it all unfold. i just like watching it all unfold.

]]> By: Jenny Rae Rappaport http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/08/19/putting-russia-in-perspective/#comment-432 Jenny Rae Rappaport Tue, 19 Aug 2008 16:05:11 +0000 http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/08/19/putting-russia-in-perspective/#comment-432 But if Russia is gaining power this way (and I haven't been following the news as well as I normally do, since I've been caught up with the Olympics), then what's to say that Putin won't want to escalate it into something resembling a second cold war. He's pissed off enough as it is, and the guy who is ostensibly president of Russia (Mendev?) doesn't seem to be doing anything. But if Russia is gaining power this way (and I haven’t been following the news as well as I normally do, since I’ve been caught up with the Olympics), then what’s to say that Putin won’t want to escalate it into something resembling a second cold war. He’s pissed off enough as it is, and the guy who is ostensibly president of Russia (Mendev?) doesn’t seem to be doing anything.

]]>