Comments on: Russia: what’s next? http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/05/28/russia-whats-next/ Autumn Rain 2110 Wed, 07 Jan 2009 01:40:36 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.2 By: opportunity ameriplan business http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/05/28/russia-whats-next/#comment-902 opportunity ameriplan business Sun, 14 Dec 2008 22:34:41 +0000 http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/05/28/russia-whats-next/#comment-902 business ameriplan opportunity <a href="http://forums.creativecow.net/profile/124992" rel="nofollow">opportunity ameriplan business</a> business ameriplan opportunity opportunity ameriplan business

]]> By: David J. Williams » Blog Archive » Thoughts amidst the heatwave http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/05/28/russia-whats-next/#comment-168 David J. Williams » Blog Archive » Thoughts amidst the heatwave Sun, 08 Jun 2008 19:59:37 +0000 http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/05/28/russia-whats-next/#comment-168 [...] And man, those things are nasty. I’m not going to try to offer them up as evidence in the Great Russian Decline Debate, but it’s a good reminder that while it’s sunk a long way from its Red Army days, the [...] [...] And man, those things are nasty. I’m not going to try to offer them up as evidence in the Great Russian Decline Debate, but it’s a good reminder that while it’s sunk a long way from its Red Army days, the [...]

]]> By: David Williams http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/05/28/russia-whats-next/#comment-167 David Williams Sun, 08 Jun 2008 17:33:40 +0000 http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/05/28/russia-whats-next/#comment-167 Wired- - I'm inclined to agree; all the more so as we've seen that scenario (of Russian tech combined with Chinese manpower) before: back in the decade of I Like Ike, before the Sino-Russian split. Though I do think the tech gap between Russia and China will definitely narrow somewhat across the next few decades, it's still likely be one of the foundations of any such alliance. (assuming that Russia can keep it together). And I hope you enjoy the book! Definitely drop me a line and let me know what you think! Wired- - I’m inclined to agree; all the more so as we’ve seen that scenario (of Russian tech combined with Chinese manpower) before: back in the decade of I Like Ike, before the Sino-Russian split. Though I do think the tech gap between Russia and China will definitely narrow somewhat across the next few decades, it’s still likely be one of the foundations of any such alliance. (assuming that Russia can keep it together).

And I hope you enjoy the book! Definitely drop me a line and let me know what you think!

]]> By: Wired http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/05/28/russia-whats-next/#comment-163 Wired Sat, 07 Jun 2008 20:54:47 +0000 http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/05/28/russia-whats-next/#comment-163 You definately have a point, David, and Russia - at least politically - may be more able to turn it's demographic problems around than most of Europe, given their prevalent (and successful) authoritarian revival since V. Putin. Thinking about it, they could very well be the "head" (hightech, miltech) to China as the "body" (manufacturing), and with China getting access to Siberia's ressources... *whistles* Well, I'll have to wait to read what you've made of it. ;-) Thank you for the reply, by the way. I just found your site two days ago via a messageboard link, and my Amazon tells me I'll have to wait almost three weeks to get my fingers on "The Mirrored Heavens". Hell, I'll probably be the first German to get my fingers on it! Ah, the joys of living on the eastern side of the Atlantic... ;-) You definately have a point, David, and Russia - at least politically - may be more able to turn it’s demographic problems around than most of Europe, given their prevalent (and successful) authoritarian revival since V. Putin. Thinking about it, they could very well be the “head” (hightech, miltech) to China as the “body” (manufacturing), and with China getting access to Siberia’s ressources… *whistles*

Well, I’ll have to wait to read what you’ve made of it. ;-)
Thank you for the reply, by the way. I just found your site two days ago via a messageboard link, and my Amazon tells me I’ll have to wait almost three weeks to get my fingers on “The Mirrored Heavens”. Hell, I’ll probably be the first German to get my fingers on it! Ah, the joys of living on the eastern side of the Atlantic… ;-)

]]> By: David Williams http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/05/28/russia-whats-next/#comment-162 David Williams Sat, 07 Jun 2008 18:10:55 +0000 http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/05/28/russia-whats-next/#comment-162 An excellent analysis of the problems Russia currently faces, and I take no issue with any of it. The demographics is at the heart of it; unless Russia can reverse that, she's (literally) history. But if she can, then reassertion of control of the periphery remains well within the realm of possibility. At least Russia is aware of the problem, and isn't sleepwalking its way into catastrophe. The decline slowed in 2007, but the water continues to pour into the boat . . . But here's the thing: all I'm arguing against is assuming that Russia is screwed by definition. She's looking at an uphill battle, but I don't think she's toast. Yet. And you're right that in some ways, my choice of a Russia-Chinese combination was informed as much by what I thought would be interesting as plausible. My main focus is on just how much more disastrous the 21st century could get if geopolitics goes bipolar again . . . and on just what a pandora's box weaponization of space is likely to unleash. In any event, really appreciate the comment/dialogue. An excellent analysis of the problems Russia currently faces, and I take no issue with any of it. The demographics is at the heart of it; unless Russia can reverse that, she’s (literally) history. But if she can, then reassertion of control of the periphery remains well within the realm of possibility. At least Russia is aware of the problem, and isn’t sleepwalking its way into catastrophe. The decline slowed in 2007, but the water continues to pour into the boat . . .

But here’s the thing: all I’m arguing against is assuming that Russia is screwed by definition. She’s looking at an uphill battle, but I don’t think she’s toast. Yet. And you’re right that in some ways, my choice of a Russia-Chinese combination was informed as much by what I thought would be interesting as plausible. My main focus is on just how much more disastrous the 21st century could get if geopolitics goes bipolar again . . . and on just what a pandora’s box weaponization of space is likely to unleash.

In any event, really appreciate the comment/dialogue.

]]> By: Wired http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/05/28/russia-whats-next/#comment-161 Wired Sat, 07 Jun 2008 16:22:38 +0000 http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/05/28/russia-whats-next/#comment-161 David, while the notion of a Eurasian block with China and Russia is a most interesting and, quite honestly, from a geopolitical fiction writing perspective, feasable approach, you've like many other writers succumbed to an approach that neglects real trends in favour of an interesting setting. I'm not saying that this, per se, is something bad. In fact, I myself prefer reading this kind of nation-state based military fiction to most other genres. But with regards to Russia the facts are undeniable: it's recent economic boom is based on high ressource prices - and on those alone. It's not backed by infrastructure investments, or a general trend to modernize the Russian economy. Secondly, Russia is a nation with bleeding borders and a thousand papercuts striking ever more closer to it's core. And once the recent generation of post-communist, Moscow-backed leaders in it's periphery come to an end, it's borders will erupt in a dozen civil wars, most of them with the aim to install Muslim regimes, thereby paralyzing Russia as an international actor as it has to throw all it's meager ressources against it's southern flank in a vain attempt to stem the tide. Which brings me to point three, namely that the tide has long since swept over the dykes. Russia is a dying nation. There can be much said about macroeconomic trends and futuer ressource prices, but demographics are the ultimate macro-indicator, one that cannot easily be turned around. Fact is, simplified, Russians don't breed, and on top of that are drugging themselves to death. HIV infections are on the rise, male life expectancy in dropping so fast that it's almost reached the level of African developing countries, and the average Russian reproduction ratio is 1.11 children per couple. Just to maintain a steady population, 2.11 would be needed. 1.11 children per couple. regardless of all the nukes in the world and oil reserves the size of the Pacific Ocean, that's not the profile of a coming superpower. It's the profile of a civilization that's rung it's own death bell. And that's not even taking into account that the only group seriously getting children in all the Russian Federation are, well, I guess you expected as much: Muslims. Not exactly poster children for modern mmpire building either... David, while the notion of a Eurasian block with China and Russia is a most interesting and, quite honestly, from a geopolitical fiction writing perspective, feasable approach, you’ve like many other writers succumbed to an approach that neglects real trends in favour of an interesting setting. I’m not saying that this, per se, is something bad. In fact, I myself prefer reading this kind of nation-state based military fiction to most other genres. But with regards to Russia the facts are undeniable: it’s recent economic boom is based on high ressource prices - and on those alone.

It’s not backed by infrastructure investments, or a general trend to modernize the Russian economy. Secondly, Russia is a nation with bleeding borders and a thousand papercuts striking ever more closer to it’s core. And once the recent generation of post-communist, Moscow-backed leaders in it’s periphery come to an end, it’s borders will erupt in a dozen civil wars, most of them with the aim to install Muslim regimes, thereby paralyzing Russia as an international actor as it has to throw all it’s meager ressources against it’s southern flank in a vain attempt to stem the tide. Which brings me to point three, namely that the tide has long since swept over the dykes. Russia is a dying nation. There can be much said about macroeconomic trends and futuer ressource prices, but demographics are the ultimate macro-indicator, one that cannot easily be turned around. Fact is, simplified, Russians don’t breed, and on top of that are drugging themselves to death. HIV infections are on the rise, male life expectancy in dropping so fast that it’s almost reached the level of African developing countries, and the average Russian reproduction ratio is 1.11 children per couple. Just to maintain a steady population, 2.11 would be needed. 1.11 children per couple. regardless of all the nukes in the world and oil reserves the size of the Pacific Ocean, that’s not the profile of a coming superpower. It’s the profile of a civilization that’s rung it’s own death bell.

And that’s not even taking into account that the only group seriously getting children in all the Russian Federation are, well, I guess you expected as much: Muslims. Not exactly poster children for modern mmpire building either…

]]> By: David J. Williams » Blog Archive » The next generation of warfare http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/05/28/russia-whats-next/#comment-142 David J. Williams » Blog Archive » The next generation of warfare Mon, 02 Jun 2008 01:39:54 +0000 http://autumnrain2110.com/blog/2008/05/28/russia-whats-next/#comment-142 [...] David J. Williams Autumn Rain 2110 « Russia: what’s next? [...] [...] David J. Williams Autumn Rain 2110 « Russia: what’s next? [...]

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